Know what to bet on — before you spend a year on it.

You have more ideas than capacity, and everyone in the room has a different favourite. I gather the evidence that shows where the real opportunities are, sharpen them into statements you can compare, and leave your team a decision it can still defend in the next meeting.

How do we do this?
“Which of these should we build? And how do we know it’s the right one?”

An idea list is not a plan. What turns it into one is evidence about which problem is worth solving, statements sharp enough to compare, and criteria that still hold when the loudest person in the room disagrees.

How it works

The Product Direction process

Three phases, each ending with something the next one needs: evidence, then comparable statements, then a decision. What that looks like in practice is in the German Red Cross case — six research themes condensed into three prioritised problem statements.

01

Map

Before anything gets ranked, we need to know what is actually there. User interviews, your existing analytics, support tickets and market signals together show where people struggle and where the gaps are — including the opportunities nobody had written on the list.

02

Sharpen

An idea is not comparable; a problem statement is. Each candidate becomes one sentence naming the user, the need and the evidence behind it. Ideas that cannot survive that sentence tend to fall away on their own.

03

Commit

Then we rank against criteria you agreed on before anyone saw the scores — impact, confidence, effort and strategic fit. You leave with one decision, the reasoning written down, and the runners-up parked rather than forgotten.

01.Map

Before anything gets ranked, we need to know what is actually there. User interviews, your existing analytics, support tickets and market signals together show where people struggle and where the gaps are — including the opportunities nobody had written on the list.

User interviewsAnalytics & support dataMarket signals
WHERE THE OPPORTUNITIES AREUser interviewsAnalytics & supportMarket signalsOnboarding drop-off before first valueReturning users cannot find saved itemsFirst contact feels too exposedReporting takes four manual stepsPricing page raises more questions than it answers

02.Sharpen

An idea is not comparable; a problem statement is. Each candidate becomes one sentence naming the user, the need and the evidence behind it. Ideas that cannot survive that sentence tend to fall away on their own.

Problem statementsAssumption mappingEvidence per candidate
IDEA„Add a chat function“No user named. No need. No evidence.PROBLEM STATEMENTUSERYoung people seeking helpNEEDAsk without being recognisedEVIDENCE9 of 12 interviews named this

03.Commit

Then we rank against criteria you agreed on before anyone saw the scores — impact, confidence, effort and strategic fit. You leave with one decision, the reasoning written down, and the runners-up parked rather than forgotten.

Ranked shortlistDecision criteriaWritten rationale
RANKED AGAINST AGREED CRITERIAIMPACTCONFIDENCEEFFORTFITFirst contact feels too exposedOnboarding drop-off before first valueReporting takes four manual stepsSaved items are hard to find again
Our solution

Decide what to build — and be able to say why

Evidence first, then sharp statements, then a ranked decision. You end up with one bet your team understands and a method it can run again without me.

Outcome

  • A ranked shortlist with the reasoning behind each position
  • Sharp problem statements, ready to hand to a design sprint
  • Decision criteria your team agreed on in advance
  • The runners-up parked, with what would change their rank

Perfect for

  • Teams with more ideas than capacity and no shared basis for choosing
  • Initiatives that need evidence before a budget decision

Type

Sprint, two to four weeks

Who needs this

Who this is for

This is the stage before the three questions that follow — when there are several reasonable directions and no agreed basis for choosing between them.

Product lead

Your backlog holds more ideas than the year has capacity

Every idea has a sponsor, none has evidence, and the roadmap goes to whoever argues longest.

You get a ranked shortlist with the reasoning written down.

Founder

You can only afford to be wrong once

With limited runway, building the wrong thing first is not a delay. It is the company.

You get the riskiest assumption named before you spend on it.

Corporate innovation

A committee decides, and opinion is not enough

The initiative needs a defensible basis, not a persuasive deck. What survives questioning is evidence.

You get criteria agreed in advance and a decision you can present.

Not sure this is the right one?

Questions

Questions people ask before starting

How do you decide which idea to build first?

Not by scoring ideas against each other, because ideas are not comparable — they are described at different levels of detail by people with different stakes. First each candidate becomes a problem statement naming the user, the need and the evidence. Only then do you rank, against criteria agreed before anyone saw the scores. The order of those two steps is what keeps the result from being a popularity contest.

What is an opportunity, as opposed to an idea?

An idea is a proposed solution. An opportunity is a problem worth solving, stated together with the evidence that it exists. „A chat function“ is an idea. „Young people stop before the first contact because they are afraid of being recognised“ is an opportunity — and it admits several solutions, which is exactly what you want this early.

How long does it take?

Usually two to four weeks. The gathering stage takes the most time, because interviews have to be scheduled around real people. The decision workshop itself is a day. If the evidence already exists inside your organisation and only needs synthesising, it can be shorter.

Isn’t this just a workshop?

There is a workshop in it, and it is the smallest part. A workshop without evidence beforehand produces the ranking the room would have produced anyway, only with sticky notes. The work is what happens before it: talking to users, reading what your own data already says, and writing statements sharp enough to disagree with.

What if the team already knows what it wants to build?

Then this is short and cheap insurance. We write down what would have to be true for that choice to be right and test the riskiest of those statements. Often it holds and you proceed with more confidence. Sometimes it does not, and you learned that in two weeks instead of after two quarters.

Let’s work together

Ready to find out what is worth building?

A free 30-minute call. No pitch, no pressure — just an honest look at your list and whether I can help.